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If the stem of tealeaf floats vertically in the teacup, it is a harbinger of auspicious events.
Normally, a tealeaf stem floats horizontally, so a vertically floating stem would be most unusual. A high-quality teapot serving high-quality tea wouldn't result in any floating stems at all, so if it occurred, then it would be most unusual. Spectacularly good luck is also most unusual, and most-unusual events relate to each other.
High-quality teapots have a fine strainer to prevent stems entering the cup, and high-quality tea never has stems mixed with the leaves. Low-quality teapots and low-quality tea produce an embarrassing number of floating stems. Therefore the tea maker would never serve tea unless the teapot and tea were high quality.
The superstition is said to have been encouraged by crafty tea merchants who sold bancha (regular, cheap tea with a few stems) to customers, telling them the stem would float. That would make their guests believe they'll have good luck.
The merchants also passed on the trick to make the stem float vertically, by soaking one end of the stem in water before making the tea. The drier part would contain more air than the wetted part, and therefore float vertically.
It's amusing to imagine people picking out suitable teeny-weeny stems and soaking just one end in water for the appropriate amount of time. But who knows? It might have happened.
The story about the naughty tea merchants is a classic example of how superstitions are nurtured and spread.
We all appreciate good luck and easily fall into the trap of engaging with superstitious behaviour. It can temporarily reduce anxiety and provide a false sense of control.
Casinos are full of such people.